The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
Ntawm ib sab, lub lithium roj teeb loj heev CATL dhau lub rooj sib tham IPO hauv 24 hnub, teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv tshiab rau lub rooj sib tham IPO; Ntawm qhov tod tes, Jianruiwo Neng ib zaug tau tshaj tawm cov tswv lag luam txo qis, thiab tib lub sijhawm kwv yees kev poob ntau dua 300 lab yuan hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo no. Koj yuav tsum paub tias Jianrui Wo Neng nyob rau qib thib peb hauv lub zog hluav taws xob hauv tsev teeb tsa lub peev xwm hauv 2017, thib ob tsuas yog CATL thiab BYD, thiab tau txais txiaj ntsig ntawm 254 lab hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo tas los. Thaum cov txheej txheem kev hloov kho thiab lub zog tshiab txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag hauv tebchaws tau maj mam thim, kev hloov pauv ntawm cov tuam txhab roj teeb hluav taws xob tau nce ntxiv. Xyoo tas los, tsis tsuas yog CATL thiab BYD pauv rooj zaum, tab sis kev ua tau zoo ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab me thiab nruab nrab- kuj tau poob qis.
Cov tuam txhab roj teeb raug tawm tsam los ntawm ob tog
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100 percent equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51 percent year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24 percent -91.75 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Lub roj teeb fais fab yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb, thiab tus nqi them rau 30 feem pua -50 feem pua ntawm tag nrho lub tsheb. Cov nyiaj pab poob qis, thiab lub hwj chim roj teeb lag luam yuav tsum tau dais tus nqi txo qis. Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov neeg siv khoom tau tso siab rau txo nqi roj teeb, thiab ntawm qhov tod tes, cov neeg muag khoom sab saum toj yog wildly raising nqi. Qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov tuam txhab roj teeb tuaj yeem xav txog. Txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv CATL, qhov twg ternary lithium roj teeb suav txog ze li ib nrab ntawm nws qhov muag hauv 2017, tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig ntawm nws cov khoom tseem ceeb roj teeb hluav taws xob los ntawm 2015 txog 2017 yog 41.40 feem pua, 44.84 feem pua, thiab 35.25 feem pua, raws li, uas tau poob qis heev hauv 35.25 feem pua. 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40 percent , which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7 percent . This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Fais fab roj teeb taub hau phaj hloov
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv, lub sab saum toj tsib lub ntiaj teb no fais fab roj teeb muag nyob rau hauv 2017 yog CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma thiab LG Chem, nrog kev muag khoom ntawm 11.84GWh, 10GWh, 7.2GWh, 5.5GWh thiab 4.5GWh feem. Txawv teb chaws, Panasonic yog tus thawj coj hauv cov roj teeb hluav taws xob hauv Nyij Pooj, thiab LG thiab Samsung yog ob lub roj teeb hluav taws xob hauv Kaus Lim Qab Teb. Nrog lawv cov loj loj, lawv coj kom zoo dua ntawm lawv cov nplai thiab nyob rau hauv ib txoj hauj lwm nyob rau hauv lub roj teeb technology thiab automation.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73 percent , surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30 percent of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
Nyob rau hauv 2016, BYD nyob rau hauv lub thib ob nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj thiab thib ob nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no rau lub hwj chim roj teeb. Nrog rau qhov tshwm sim tam sim ntawm Ningde era, nws qhov kev ua tau zoo poob qis hauv 2017.
Txawm li cas los xij, vim qhov kev nce siab ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob muaj peev xwm thiab qhov poob ntawm txoj cai them nyiaj rau lub zog tshiab, tus nqi ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob hauv CATL tau raug txo qis heev, los ntawm 2.28 yuan / Wh hauv 2015 txog 1.41 yuan / Wh. Hauv xyoo 2017, qhov nce ntxiv mus txog 38.26 feem pua. Cov nyiaj tau los tom qab txiav tawm ntawm qhov tsis yog - txiav tawm hauv CATL kuj poob los ntawm 2.96 billion yuan hauv 2016 mus rau 2.47 billion yuan hauv 2017.
Tam sim no, txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb ntawm cov roj teeb lub zog tshiab rau cov neeg caij tsheb yog cov roj teeb ternary (ternary roj teeb kuj yog txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb ntawm CATL), uas yog, lithium roj teeb nrog npib tsib xee-cobalt lithium manganate lossis npib tsib xee{{1} } cobalt lithium aluminate ua cov khoom siv cathode, thiab cobalt ua cov khoom siv cathode. Stabilizers yog indispensable. Ternary lithium muaj zog ceev thiab muaj peev xwm muab tau ntev roj teeb lub neej. Los ntawm 2017, tus nqi ntawm ternary lithium roj teeb tau poob mus rau qhov tsawg kawg nkaus ntawm 1.4-1.5 yuan / Wh, uas yog qhov pib zoo ib yam li lithium hlau phosphate. Kev nce ntawm ternary roj teeb yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau Ningde era kom dhau BYD.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium{{0}}sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73 percent .
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04 percent ; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16 percent , while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Loj overcapacity ntawm lub hwj chim roj teeb
Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv 2017, lub peev xwm ntsia tau rau lub zog tshiab lub tsheb fais fab roj teeb hauv kuv lub teb chaws yog 36.27Gwh, nce li ntawm 20 feem pua xyoo-rau- xyoo, uas nyob deb ntawm 50- 60GWh kwv yees los ntawm kev lag luam thaum pib ntawm 2017; thiab txoj hauv kev ntawm cov roj teeb lithium tau hloov pauv zoo. Kev lag luam feem ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob ntau dua 44 feem pua, uas tau nce ob npaug los ntawm 2016. Qhov no kuj yog ib yam uas Jian Ruiwu tsis tuaj yeem xav txog.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, kev tsim khoom thiab muag khoom ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb hauv kuv lub tebchaws xyoo tas los tau ze rau 800,000 units, nce 50 feem pua piv rau xyoo 2016; cov zis ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb neeg nrog caij mus txog 478, 000 units, ib xyoo - ntawm - xyoo nce ntau tshaj 200, 000 units. Pom tseeb, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob teeb tsa lub peev xwm tsis tuaj yeem ua raws li kev loj hlob ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb tsim thiab muag, vim tias kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb tau hloov pauv, thiab feem ntau ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb thiab cov tsheb tshwj xeeb tau nce sai heev. . Raws li kev poob qis ntawm lub zog tshiab neeg caij tsheb lag luam, lub zog tshiab cov neeg nrog caij tsheb uas txuas ntxiv ua kom muaj kev vam meej tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm lub zog roj teeb kev ua haujlwm.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54 percent ; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92 percent and 92.37 percent , respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92 percent . It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20 percent . This may be the company's response.
Hauv Suav teb, BYD yog qhov kev hem thawj tshaj plaws hauv CATL era. Lub roj teeb qub qub no tau dhau los ntawm CATL raws li kev xa khoom xyoo tas los. Txhawm rau kom rov qab tau lub roj teeb ua haujlwm, BYD tau ua ob qhov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb: ib qho yog kho cov roj teeb thev naus laus zis txoj hauv kev. Txij li thaum xyoo 2017, BYD tau pib siv ternary lithium roj teeb hauv nws cov neeg caij tsheb ua lag luam, thiab cov qauv hluav taws xob ntshiab uas tsim tawm xyoo 2018 thiab tom qab ntawd kuj tseem yuav siv cov roj teeb lithium ternary. Txawm li cas los xij, cov tuam txhab roj teeb xws li CATL thiab Guoxuan Hi-Tech kuj tau pib nthuav cov peev txheej ntawm cov roj teeb ternary. Qhov thib ob yog tig tawm lub zog roj teeb ua lag luam thiab ua haujlwm ntawm nws tus kheej los muab lwm lub tuam txhab tsheb tshiab.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30 percent of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
