Lithium roj teeb maj: Muab pov tseg 100 billion peev peev txheej phiaj xwm hauv ib hlis
Kev txheeb cais qhia tau hais tias nyob rau lub hli dhau los ib leeg, ntau tshaj 10 lub tuam txhab lag luam lithium roj teeb kev lag luam tau tshaj tawm cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav, nrog rau tag nrho cov peev txheej txog li 100 billion yuan, ntawm cov thawj coj kev lag luam Ningde Times thiab Yiwei Lithium Energy Investment cov phiaj xwm suav txog ib nrab ntawm tag nrho.
"Grab the scale, grab the (market) share, and profit is not something to consider at this stage." In the face of the continuous hot lithium battery investment wave, an executive of a listed company in the industry chain told reporters this.
Entering the fourth quarter, the lithium battery industry chain is still the most dazzling sector in the market. A private equity person bluntly said that there is growth and certainty here, and there is a market prospect of trillions of dollars, which is unparalleled in the whole market. "The short-term and long-term logic is very clear. Now the huge investment of industry chain companies has made up for the gap in medium-term changes."
Statistics from Shanghai Securities News show that in the past month alone, leading A-share lithium battery companies represented by Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy have announced plans for investment and capacity expansion totaling 100 billion yuan. Driven by unprecedented industrial investment, the lithium-ion battery sector has once again been sought after by the market, and has begun to form a virtuous industry-financial cycle of "financing - investment expansion - stock price rise - continued financing".
No one can resist an exponentially expanding "cake". From the terminal car manufacturers, to the supply chain such as lithium batteries in the midstream, to the raw materials such as lithium mines in the upstream, everyone is working hard. When the entire industry chain, as well as the secondary market, and even the primary market are running, then all participants have only one choice - to run faster.
Khiav: 100 billion yuan peev hauv 1 lub hlis
"This wave of investment has two characteristics: first, leading companies lead the investment, and second, the upstream and downstream extension of the industrial chain." Among the hundreds of billions of investment scale in the past month, Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy accounted for half of the country.
On October 18, CATL, the leader in lithium batteries, said in its reply to the fixed-increase inquiry letter: "There is a large demand for business development funds." After listing a series of capital expenditures such as production construction, RD investment, and company operations, the company believes that , the existing funds cannot meet the needs of future development, and bluntly stated that the capital demand for new production construction from 2020 to the present will be as high as 110 billion yuan. Despite "not enough money to spend", CATL announced two more project investment plans on November 5, totaling 15 billion yuan.
In the past month of lithium battery production expansion, CATL's 15 billion yuan cannot raise too much water. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, in the past month alone, more than 10 companies in the lithium battery industry chain have announced plans to invest and expand production, with a total investment of up to 100 billion yuan.
For example, on November 5, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that the company plans to complete a fixed asset investment of 30.521 billion yuan in Jingmen City, acquire about 3,000 acres of land, and build a Jingmen Power Storage Battery Industrial Park project with an annual output of 152.61GWh. Yiwei Lithium Energy said that this move is to better seize the market opportunities of power storage batteries, expand the production scale of power storage batteries, and optimize the company's industrial structure.
"This wave of investment has two characteristics: first, leading companies lead the investment, and second, the upstream and downstream extension of the industrial chain." An industry insider said.
Cov qauv ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam ua lag luam yog pom tseeb. Ntawm ntau pua lab ntawm kev nqis peev hauv lub hli dhau los, Ningde Times thiab Yiwei Lithium Energy suav nrog ib nrab ntawm lub tebchaws. Cov saum toj no - hais txog kev lag luam sab hauv tau hais tias lithium roj teeb yog cov cuab yeej cuab tam -kev lag luam hnyav nrog kev nqis peev loj. Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam muaj qhov zoo hauv kev siv tshuab, peev thiab lwm yam. Hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los, kev lag luam feem ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab ua lag luam tau nce ntxiv, uas tau ua tiav los ntawm kev nthuav dav loj -.
The upstream and downstream extension investment of the industrial chain is also the "exclusive" of leading companies. On November 8, Shida Shenghua, the leader in electrolyte solvents for lithium-ion batteries, announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenghua New Energy, plans to invest in a 300,000-ton/year electrolyte project with an estimated total investment of 1.6 billion yuan. This is Shi Dashenghua's first entry into the field of downstream electrolyte production.
This action quickly attracted market attention. A large number of institutional investors flocked to the company's conference call. Shi Dashenghua said in response to investors' questions that the essence of electrolytes is materials, and many large-scale electrolyte companies are deploying upstream materials. The "type" electrolyte material supplier has been transformed into an electrolyte plus material integrated platform service provider.
Race up: You can't hand over the market to others
"As long as it is produced, it can be sold. If we do not expand production, it is equivalent to handing over the market to others, which is equivalent to handing over future performance to others."
"The track is hot now, and the cost of investment must be relatively high. If you look at the logic of the cycle, it is obviously impossible to invest, and you will not be able to bear depreciation in the future; if you look at the logic of growth, the current investment represents the future output. If the shortage of supply can continue, the output will become profit." The above-mentioned private equity source told reporters.
Tom qab muaj kev paub txog kev paub dhau los hauv ib lossis ob xyoos dhau los, kev ua lag luam tau nkag siab qhov nkag mus ntawm cov tsheb tshiab lub zog uas tau thov los ntawm ntau lub teb chaws mus rau qhov kev thov rau lithium - ion roj teeb. Piv txwv li, qee lub koom haum tshawb fawb kwv yees tias kev nkag mus ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb hauv Tebchaws Meskas yuav nce mus txog 50 feem pua los ntawm 2030, uas yog sib npaug rau 25-fold nce hauv kev lag luam tsheb tshiab hauv 10 xyoo. Cov kev cia siab rau kuv lub teb chaws yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws. Qee lub koom haum ntseeg tias kev nkag mus ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb hauv kuv lub tebchaws yuav ncav cuag 35 feem pua los ntawm 2025.
An industry with such a huge scale and an amazing growth rate is regarded as the Internet at the beginning of this century. Therefore, a large number of Internet giants dare to spend tens of billions of funds to end up "building cars"; new car-making forces are not afraid of losses, even if they sell one car and lose one, they must seize the market. The downstream grabbing the market regardless of cost will undoubtedly drive the entire industry chain to boil, especially in the most important link in the new energy vehicle industry chain-battery, the heat soon catches up.
"The output is not enough, and it has not been enough." A relevant person from a company in the lithium-ion battery industry told reporters.
Some industry analysts also provided a calculation method, "The penetration rate of new energy vehicles multiplied by the annual sales volume, and then multiplied by the kilowatt-hours of single-vehicle batteries, is the demand for lithium batteries for new energy vehicles. Policies, car companies, and research institutions have been increasing the demand. The latest ones are 1400GWh to 1600GWh."
Demand goals mean no worries about selling, and no worries about selling represent performance. The above-mentioned relevant person analyzed: "As long as it is produced, it can be sold. If we do not expand production, it is equivalent to handing over the market to others, which is equivalent to handing over future performance to others."
The above-mentioned private equity people said that they are used to seeing the market's pursuit of popular tracks, and it is easy to understand the excitement and frustration of the collective expansion of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. "For companies in the industry chain, this is an almost once-in-a-hundred-year opportunity. It has become both fame and fortune. If it doesn't, it will be after the tide goes out. It's too late to think about it now."
Not only companies in the industry chain are running, but also OTC funds are actively entering the market. In the secondary market, expansion of production can often be sought after by the market, and fixed increase is effortless; in the primary market, institutions will even "snatch the head" for a start-up battery company.
Muab tag nrho ua ke: Cov kev sib tw hauv nruab nrab tau tshwm sim
"Unless the supply of lithium mines is significantly improved, it will seriously affect the profit margins of lithium battery companies." Some private equity people believe that the midstream of almost all manufacturing industries is "inflated at both ends", the downstream is under pressure from the terminal, and the upstream is the cost of raw materials.
Kev khiav qus yog ib txwm muaj nyob rau hauv surprise raids, tab sis tsis tshua muaj nyob rau hauv ntev. Yog vim li cas yog qhov yooj yim, kev ncua ntev yog qhov sib npaug ntau dua. Rau kev lag luam roj teeb lithium, nws yog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas txiav txim siab nws lub zog.
Kev txiav txim siab los ntawm cov txheej txheem uas twb muaj lawm, txawm hais tias muaj txoj hauv kev tshiab xws li sodium ions, lithium roj teeb tseem yog lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb. Txawm li cas los xij, lithium nws tus kheej yog cov hlau tsis tshua muaj. Txawm hais tias nws qhov xwm txheej mining nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no tuaj yeem ua raws li qhov kev thov rau lub zog tshiab tsheb yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau tag nrho lub zog tshiab tsheb kev lag luam los ntawm kev muag khoom mus rau cov txiaj ntsig.
Txawm li cas los xij, qhov xwm txheej tsis zoo. Cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb ntawm West China Securities ntseeg hais tias tag nrho cov kev nce hauv ntiaj teb cov pob zeb lithium nyuaj hauv ob xyoos tom ntej no yog qhov tsawg heev. Yog tias qhov nce hauv cov concentrates muag los ntawm Greenbush Mine raug txiav tawm los ntawm kev muag khoom tsis yog -, cov khoom siv concentrates tuaj yeem xa mus rau lub ntiaj teb lithium ntsev ua cov nroj tsuag. Qhov nce ntxiv yog txwv ntau, thiab feem ntau lithium ntsev ua cov nroj tsuag yuav ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv raw.
However, another technical route, lithium extraction from salt lakes, has entered the mainstream vision. Tibet Mining has revealed that from a technical point of view, the Zabuye Salt Lake Phase II project fully draws on the relevant experience of the successful lithium extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake, and chooses "salt field evaporation plus membrane separation technology plus crystallization evaporation" in combination with its own resource endowment characteristics. Lithium extraction technology route, this process route can reduce the total cost of lithium carbonate production after deducting by-products to 24,100 yuan/ton (the production cost of lithium carbonate extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake is 32,000 yuan/ton to 34,000 yuan/ton), the product Competitiveness will be greatly improved.
"Unless the supply of lithium mines is significantly improved, it will seriously affect the profit margins of lithium battery companies." The above-mentioned private equity sources believe that the midstream of almost all manufacturing industries is "inflated at both ends", the downstream is under pressure from the terminal, and the upstream is the cost of raw materials. For example, the middle reaches of the fuel vehicle industry chain are not very good. The downstream OEMs require an annual price reduction, and the upstream steel and other raw material prices follow the market. This is one of the reasons why domestic auto parts manufacturers rarely have independent giants. "The upstream of lithium battery companies is still small metals, and their cost pressures should be paid more attention to."
Zoo li cov tsheb roj, kuj tseem muaj lub siab los txo tus nqi qis ntawm lithium roj teeb. Nyob rau theem no, kev muag khoom ntawm lub tsheb tshiab - ua rog tsis loj, thiab lawv tsuas yog tsom mus rau kev ua lag luam siab - kawg, yog li qhov kev poob tau txais. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev muag khoom thiab kev txav mus los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom lag luam tus nqi, lub davhlau ya nyob twg siab yog khi kom xa mus rau lub tuam txhab lithium roj teeb.
"It is very difficult to reduce costs. Now the manufacturing cost of a lithium-ion battery exceeds that of a fuel vehicle." An executive of a car company told reporters.
"Don't worry too much. Lithium battery companies are also exploring new technologies and processes through financing, RD, and production. Only when the growing industry runs, can there be infinite possibilities." The above-mentioned industry insiders said.
