In-depth analysis of the obstacles to the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry
Qhov kev lag luam no tsis muaj ntau tshaj plaws tsis yog nyiaj, tab sis paub tab technology thiab kev ua haujlwm pab pawg uas tuaj yeem ua lag luam ua lag luam.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.
Tus yuam sij rau cov kev tsis sib haum xeeb nyob hauv lub roj teeb
Txawm nyob rau hauv Suav teb los yog thoob ntiaj teb, muaj ib tug neeg paub tab kev pab txhawb nqa thiab kev tsim khoom rau lub plhaub tsim thiab lub tsheb sib dhos, yog li tsis tas yuav txhawj xeeb ntau dhau. Rau cov tsheb tshiab lub zog, txawm hais tias nws yooj yim los tsim cov cwj pwm noj, yog tias cov teeb meem ntawm lub sij hawm them nyiaj ntev dhau thiab kev caij nkoj luv dhau tsis tuaj yeem daws tau, ces piv nrog cov tsheb siv roj, qhov refueling yog ceev thiab cov chaw nres tsheb muaj neeg coob. Nws yuav plam nws cov xwm txheej raws li kev nyiam tshiab hauv kev ua lag luam.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
Ua ntej, tus nqi tsim kho ntawm qhov chaw nws tus kheej yog qhov loj heev, thiab lub roj teeb xav tau kev saib xyuas kev tshaj lij. Hom peev txheej twg tuaj yeem ua rau cov chaw tsim khoom roj teeb koom tes nrog kom ua tiav qhov no?
Qhov thib ob yog tias thaum cov neeg siv khoom yuav lub tsheb, lub roj teeb module hauv lub tsheb yog sib npaug rau kev them nyiaj tso nyiaj thiab xauj nws. Qhov kev nqis peev no yuav siv sijhawm li 3 txog 10 xyoo rov qab los. Yam kev lag luam twg tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo?
Qhov thib peb yog tias cov qauv roj teeb tam sim no tseem tsis tau koom ua ke. Zoo li cov xov tooj ntawm tes thaum ntxov, cov qauv qauv thiab kev sib koom ua ke tsis tuaj yeem ua tiav. Cov tuam txhab zoo li cas tuaj yeem muaj qhov zoo li no mus tom ntej- saib thiab RD muaj peev xwm los tsim thiab ua cov qauv?
Yog li ntawd, qhov kev daws teeb meem tiag tiag nyob rau lub sijhawm no tseem yog kom them sai sai thiab ua kom lub roj teeb lub neej.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm ruaj ntseg tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees. Piv txwv li, tom qab tawg ntawm Samsung xov tooj ntawm tes, lub tshav dav hlau loj tau txais kev cai nruj dua rau kev nqa thiab siv lithium{0}} roj teeb lithium. Qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb yog tias nws yog qhov nyuaj rau kev ua tiav kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm ceev thiab kev nyab xeeb ntawm lub roj teeb nws tus kheej. Tam sim no, tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam tseem ceeb. Txawm tias graphene, uas yog ib zaug hyped, yog ib qho nyuaj rau ua kom tiav loj -scale coj mus muag khoom loj nyob rau hauv peb mus rau tsib xyoos.
Lub hauv paus ntawm cov teeb meem kev pab yog nyob rau hauv lithium cobalt
Hauv peb lub xyoos dhau los, tus nqi ntawm cov roj lithium ntsev tau nce siab heev. Los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2014 txog 2017, nws nce los ntawm tsawg dua 40, 000 yuan / ton mus rau 180, 000 yuan / ton, thiab tom qab ntawd poob mus txog 150, 000 yuan/ton. thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Tus nqi roj teeb - qib lithium carbonate tau nce txog 4 mus rau 5 npaug.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400 percent increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50 percent increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached 29 per pound, but there is still more than 65 percent of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
Puas yog tus nqi nce siab vim tsis muaj peev txheej? cov lus teb yog qhov tsis zoo.
From the analysis of lithium resources, the world's current proven lithium reserves are 14Mt, and the current annual demand is 32.5kt. Lithium resources are mainly distributed in the range of 30-40 degrees north latitude and 20-30 degrees south latitude, such as the Andes Plateau of South America, the western United States and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Australia and Chile together control 75 percent of the world's lithium resources.
Hauv kuv lub tebchaws, 90 feem pua ntawm cov peev txheej lithium tau muab faib rau sab hnub poob, thiab cov mining tam sim no feem ntau yog ore lithium (spodumene thiab lepidolite) thiab qib nruab nrab yog qis (0.8 feem pua -1.4 feem pua, qis dua 1.465 feem pua. nyob rau hauv txawv teb chaws - 3. 55 feem pua), thiab magnesium ntsiab lus nyob rau hauv brine yog kuj siab (qhov Mg / Li piv feem ntau yog ntau dua 40, thiab Atacama Salt Lake hauv Chile tsuas yog 6.47), yog li nws nyuaj rau siv rau ib tug industrial scale.
From the analysis of cobalt resources, the world's cobalt resources are rich and concentrated. According to the 2016 Mineral Commodity Summaries of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the world's proven cobalt reserves in 2015 were 7.1 million tons, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Cuba, New Caledonia, Zambia and Russia, which accounts for about 80 percent of the world's total cobalt reserves.
In terms of production capacity, there are 10 mines producing cobalt resources in Congo (DRC), but 5 of them are held by Glencore of Switzerland, accounting for about 67 percent of the cobalt resources in producing mines in Congo (DRC). Freeport Corporation of the United States, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation of Kazakhstan, Shalina Resources Corporation of the United Arab Emirates, China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group each hold one. The rest of the world's cobalt production capacity is not enough to shake Congo's dominance.
Nrog rau kev txhim kho ntawm kev lag luam- teev kev siv thiab kev ua tiav hauv kev siv thev naus laus zis, raws li lub hauv paus ntsiab lus uas lithium, cobalt thiab lwm yam hlau tsis ploj, kev lag luam lithium roj teeb rov ua dua tshiab tau tshwm sim ntsiag to, kev rov ua dua tshiab tau dhau los ua qhov tseeb, thiab qhov kev thov rau natural resources yuav raug txo raws li. Qhov xwm txheej skyrocketing zoo li keeb kwm ntawm cov hlau ore, thiab nws yog ntau qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev tswj hwm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, uas tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog qhov xwm txheej tiag tiag ntawm kev tsim kho kev lag luam.
Tus yuam sij rau kev txhawj xeeb txog txoj cai yog nyiaj pab
Kev nkag siab yooj yim yuav tsum tau qhia meej: lub ntsiab lus ntawm lub xeev cov nyiaj pab rau lub zog tshiab tsheb yog los txhawb kev lag luam, tsim kom muaj txiaj ntsig ua ntej -mover, thiab nthuav dav kev lag luam sai sai, tsis yog cov nyiaj pab zoo ib yam li kev ua liaj ua teb ib txwm muaj. Lub hom phiaj yog los tswj qhov yooj yim disk stability. Yog li ntawd, nyob rau yav tom ntej, txoj cai pab nyiaj pab yuav raug muab tshem tawm.
The current orientation of policy subsidies generally focuses on two aspects: first, at the technical level, encouraging technological innovation, keeping pace with the world, and rewarding industry leaders; second, at the market level, breaking through the bottleneck of environmental protection, advocating green travel, and leveraging large and medium-sized cities , highlight the responsibility of a major country, and rely on the "Belt and Road" to seize overseas markets.
Tshwj xeeb rau kev tsim khoom, kev ua haujlwm thiab kev muag khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab, kev muag khoom tam sim no ntawm cov tsheb fais fab zoo li loj hlob qeeb lossis txawm poob qis, uas muaj kev sib raug zoo nrog kev txuas ntxiv ntawm lub sijhawm xa mus rau ntau tshaj 6 lub hlis. Qhov teeb meem nws xav txog yog tias lub peev xwm tsim tau tiag tiag ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob tsawg heev tam sim no. Nyob rau hauv txoj kev uas twb muaj lawm, txawm hais tias cov tuam txhab uas muaj feem xyuam kuj tau nqis peev hauv cov chaw tsim khoom roj teeb thiab cov roj lithium ntsev (tsuas yog lithium carbonate thiab lithium hydroxide) cov haujlwm, tab sis Lub sijhawm voj voog rau kev npaj, ua qauv qhia, tsim, kev pom zoo, kev tsim kho, thiab kev tsim cov haujlwm ua haujlwm, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov kev lag luam tshuaj uas muaj cov ntsev lithium hauv paus, feem ntau yog 1-2 xyoo, thiab kev tso tawm loj ntawm cov peev txheej yuav tsum yog ua ntej 2020.
The related terminal car market demand has not eased for a moment, as can be seen in the number of new energy vehicles in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (for example, Beijing's number has been as far away as 2021). Some foreign media believe that if there is no capacity limit for batteries, the sales of pure electric vehicles can easily surpass that of plug-in hybrid vehicles. In recent years, the Chinese government has achieved the goal of vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles. The key to restricting the development of new energy vehicles is not government subsidies or market demand, but the formation of production capacity under technological breakthroughs. Public information shows that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros (11.8 billion U.S. dollars) to build 40 new energy vehicles with local Chinese partners. The company hopes to produce 1.5 million new energy vehicles in China by 2025. cars, most of which are electric vehicles. Toyota has also said it will produce electric vehicles in China by 2020. BMW's battery RD and production center was opened from Munich to Shenyang, and BMW also chose Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) as a partner.
Nws tuaj yeem hais tias qhov no yog lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws rau lub zog tshiab. Cov tub rog tshiab tab tom los, thiab cov peev txheej loj tau koom nrog txhua yam ntawm cov mines, cov roj lithium ntsev, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov roj teeb tsim thiab kev tsim tsheb los ntawm ntau txoj hauv kev, thiab tau cog lus los txeeb lub sijhawm. Cov tsoos bigwigs tseem tau sawv tam sim ntawd, ua haujlwm hnyav, sim ua kom lub hauv paus ruaj khov thiab nthuav mus rau thaj chaw tshiab. Hauv ib lo lus, qhov kev lag luam no tsis muaj feem ntau tsis yog nyiaj, tab sis cov thev naus laus zis paub tab uas tuaj yeem siv tau hauv kev ua lag luam thiab pab pawg ua haujlwm uas tuaj yeem ua lag luam.
